Past, Present and Future Population

Past, Present and Future

A brief paper of population change for Bear Lake area and surrounding communities.

By Bryce Huefner

Have you ever returned to a place you once lived to find that it had changed? Sometimes when we live in a place for a long time we do not notice the changes that occur over time. Let’s take a look at Bear Lake County and Rich County demographic data from U.S. Census reports to see if there are changes we may or may not have noticed. Can we predict general population trends for the future by looking at the past? I think we can at least get an idea of what is coming and how we can prepare. Bear Lake area population is growing and there are plans for more building and development. There has been a tremendous amount of time spent planning and preparing for our future growth by the Town of Garden city and Rich County. Thank you to everyone who has given time and talents to this endeavor.

As you review this, keep in mind the difference between “Town” vs. “zip code area.” While the two distinctions are close in the data there are some differences that are interesting to note. For year 2015 the Town of Garden City issued 51 residential building permits. Many building permits are not for new housing units but for remodeling. In reviewing the building permits it appears 24 are for new housing units. How much population growth does that represent over time? I have used data found mostly from the Census to draw some trends. This data is found at http://factfinder.census.gov.

Below is a chart showing the ratio of full time residents to housing units in the Town of Garden City. The average ratio from years 1980-2010 is 0.49 people/housing unit or two housing units represents 1 full-time resident. The average ratio for 2000 and 2010 in the Garden City zip code area is 0.37 or 3 homes equals 1 new full-time resident. The resident ratio difference between the Town and zip code area is interesting, and it is interesting that the zip code area appears to be going up (from 0.32 FY 2000 to 0.42 FY 2010).

Chart 1, Garden City Population/Housing units
	1980	1990	2000	2010
Town of Garden City Population	259	193	357	562
Town of Garden City Housing Units	490	415	881	1006	Ratio Average
Town of Garden City Population/Housing Unit	0.53	0.47	0.41	0.56	0.49
Garden City Zip code Area Population/			501	824
Garden City Zip code Area Housing Units			1564	1967
Garden City Zip code Area Population/Housing Unit			0.32	0.42	.37

So, when 24 new housing units are built in year 2015 in the Town of Garden City, 40 year historical trends show that 24 new units equates to 12 new full time residents. This doesn’t mean that when 24 homes are built we see 12 people move in, but it shows a trend.

The graph below shows the ratio of full time residents per housing unit for Town of Garden City from 1980-2010 and the Garden City zip code area for 2000 and 2010. As you can see, it is a relatively flat line.

I find this information useful for projecting population growth in our community. State projections for our community only show generally applied numbers for growth, nothing specific. The graph below shows all communities in Rich County growing at the same rate, so I believe these numbers are just percentages plugged into our existing population with no other consideration. This information is found here (http://gomb.utah.gov/budget-policy/demographic-economic-analysis/). Town of Garden City has also used this information in its General Plan (General Plan) and is found on page eleven.

Chart 1.1 State Projections	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050	2060
Rich County	2,264	2,532	2,843	3,153	3,495	3,908
Garden City town	562	630	796	883	979	1,094
Laketown town	248	266	313	347	419	508
Randolph city	464	519	512	568	629	703
Woodruff town	180	215	227	252	280	313
Balance of Rich County	810	901	995	1,104	1,188	1,290

If we consider building and new construction in the Garden City area then perhaps we can get a clearer idea of where we will be in the next few years.

If there are 15 new housing units every year in the Town of Garden City over the course of 10 years that leads to 150 new housing units by year 2020. If we apply the 2 units equals 1 new full time resident ratio, by 2020 the Town of Garden City will increase in full time resident population by 75 people. The chart below shows the population of each Town in Rich county from year 1980-2010. I also projected some numbers for the rest of the county towns to show an overall picture but the projections for Laketown, Randolph and Woodruff are only using the the graph and historical trends not using new building estimates.

Chart 2, Laketown Town, Randolph City, Woodruff Town, Garden City Population from1980-2010					Projected
	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020
Laketown Town	271	261	188	248	300
Randolph City	659	488	483	464	464
Woodruff Town	222	135	194	180	180
Garden City	259	193	357	562	647
Garden City Projected line per 1990-2010 trend (this is a “could be as much as” trend line)	259	193	357	562	767

After looking at the graph I projected “could be as much as” in the purple. This line follows the trend for Town of Garden City from 1990 to 2010 census data. If the trend continues there will be significant growth for the Town of Garden City and as you can see in Chart 2, the population could reach 767 people.

Zip code populations in Rich County for Census 2000, 2010 and projected population for year 2020.

Chart 3, Population by Zip Code Area and 2020 Projected			Projected
	2000	2010	2020
Laketown zip code	317	347	380
Randolph zip code	764	692	692
Woodruff zip code	369	401	420
Garden City zip code	501	824	940
Garden City zip code (could be as much as)	501	824	1148

If we follow the purple “could be as much as” line which is extrapolating the 2000 to 2010 growth trend there could be a population in Garden City zip code of 1,148 people by the year 2020. This is not what I expect but it is possible.

The chart below is interesting because it shows the growth of housing units in the Bear Lake area of Rich County including the Town of Laketown and the Town of Garden City and the surrounding areas. In this chart the term CCD shows up. CCD stands for Census County Division, you can look at that definition here (https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/gtc/gtc_cousub.html) for more information. Projections derived from the graph only.

Chart 4, Garden City-Laketown CCD housing Units and Garden City Housing Units					Projected
	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020
Garden City-Laketown CCD Housing Units	1076	1417	1978	2366	2700
Garden City Housing Units	490	415	881	1006	1175

The next chart and graph show the population of Rich County. The projections are only derived from the chart and graph.

Chart 5, Randolph-Woodruff CCD and Garden City-Laketown CCD Population					Projected
	1980	1990	2000	2010	2020
Randolph-Woodruff CCD	1228	1090	1072	1038	1038
Garden City-Laketown CCD Population	872	635	889	1226	1400

There is some more interesting data from North of the border in Bear Lake County as well. The following graph shows growth trends for Fish Haven zip code area. The full time resident population compared to the housing units is 3 housing units represents about 1 full time resident.

Chart 6, Fish Haven Zip Code Population and Fish Haven Zip Code Housing Units			2000	2010
Fish Haven Zip Code Population			139	299
Fish Haven Zip Code Housing Units			367	801

The following chart and graph show growth trends for St. Charles zip code area.

Chart 7, St. Charles Zip Code Population and St. Charles Zip Code Housing Units			2000	2010
St. Charles Zip Code Population			274	313
St. Charles Zip Code Housing			314	440

The chart and graph below show the Paris CCD which includes Paris, Bloomington and St. Charles areas. It is clear that second home population is moving into and becoming a factor in the Southern part of Bear Lake County.

Chart 8, Paris CCD: Includes Paris, Bloomington and St. Charles			2000	2010
Paris CCD: Population			1804	1729
Paris CCD: Housing units			1221	1702

One more aspect to consider regarding our total growth and economic condition is the family and children. According to American Fact Finder for Garden City zip code data, the average family size (people per household) is 2.59 for year 2010 and 2.62 for year 2000. As of 2010 there were 163 children 5-19 years of age. If we project the children (ages 5-19) population the same as chart and graph 3 then the 940 people in 2020 derives 20 new children in our community. Garden City zip code will be enrolling an estimated 183 (this number may be slightly high since the data includes 19 year old children) students into our schools by 2020. This fits the trend as this year Garden City zip code area is sending about 170 students to our schools. If Garden City zip code were to follow the “could be as much as” line in chart and graph 3 and the population grows to 1148 people by 2020 then there could be as many as 229 children ages 5-19.

“A Snap Shot 2050” by Utah Foundation shows a lot of interesting historical data and projections for the State of Utah. Growth is expected to continue and Utah has been one of the fastest growing states (by percentage increase) in the nation. If the state population continues to increase as it has in recent history and as projected, then I think Bear Lake Valley will grow at the same rate. Many people want to live in Bear Lake Valley for a myriad of reasons. Recent developments in communications allows people to work from home which allows them to live here.

If we want our children to be able to work, live and raise their children in this area, we need to consider (as best we can) our future growth and economic prosperity in our community. At this time I see working from home through communication and recreation as key employment opportunities for future families in this area.

I hope this information can be used to help us plan for future needs in the Bear Lake Valley as well as Rich and Bear Lake Counties. Slow sustained growth is better for our local economy than boom and bust cycles like we recently experienced in 2005-2012. We need to encourage growth that will make our economy, especially the recreation economy, more stable or consistent in the winter. In my personal experience with our local economy, the greatest challenge is going from too busy in the summer months to not enough to do in the winter. I see some improvement in this area and I think many people and businesses are working to level the annual boom and bust cycle but the more we can do the better off we will be. The Bear Lake Rendezvous Chamber of Commerce works on improving our winter economy a lot and there are others as well, thank you.

We live in a wonderful area. We have a beautiful lake, valley and mountains but the most wonderful thing about where we live is the people.