RCT Online News

January 12, 2025

It is STILL a dry....But a bit better!!!

The Upper Bear Basin has not has as dry a start to the water year as southern Utah but still it's been average at best. The graph on the left below shows the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Bear as of December 31, 2024. Thanks to the storms from Christmas to New Years the Basin went from 68% of median to 97%. Snow has continued at a slower pace so as of today the Basin is at 99% of median SWE.

This sounds pretty good but due to the overall dry early couple of months of the water year the soil moisture is much less than last year at this time, especially at the 8" and 20" levels below the surface. It is moisture at these levels that impacts the snowpack run off more than the surface moisture content.

The first streamflow forecast were released this month. Pease remember that this early in the winter the forecast are subject to change based on conditions in the next 3 months.

That said, the chart on the left below is from the NCRS for the Bear River. The top 5 lines show the forecast for various location along the Bear River 'up stream' from Bear Lake. The vertical gray line shows the streamflow 100% of median value over time. The numbers above each line show the forecast for streamflow at that location. The bolded value (middle value of the 5 values shown) is for a 50:50 probability of streamflow at that amount. Notice all these 50:50 values are less than the median.

The chart on the right below is from the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center (CRBFC) which uses a different forecast model from NRCS. This chart is for the forecast flow at Stewart Dam, just upstream from Rainbow Canal inflow to Mud Lake. This forecast shows a 50:50 probability of 128,000 acre feet of flow for this spring. The value is about the same as the NRCS value and is only slightly less than forecast in 2024! But we had a huge snowfall last year in March-April which maybe we'll repeat this year. Fingers crossed for sure.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's forecast for January 2025 in our area is for slightly warmer but maybe slightly wetter conditions. The seasonal forecast for Jan-Feb-March is for equal chances of above or below temperature and precipitation.

Bear Lake water level currently is as shown below, 5917.54 feet. It has risen slowly since the outflow gates were closed and the hope is the water will be at the targeted level of 5918.0 feet on April 1st. Water level on April 1, 2024 was 5918.24 feet. So again my fingers are crossed for more snow in the next few weeks.

As always I want to thank the folks at NCRS, CBRFC, RMP and all the others who help me compile the Splashback.

BEAR LAKE WATER LEVEL

January 12, 2025

5917.54 feet*

*All Bear Lake Elevations are given in UP&L Datum