RCT Online News

March 9, 2025

Improving Conditions....

The month of February was overall a good month in the Upper Bear Basin for Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and Precipitation. SWE was about 175% of average and precipitation was about 150% of average. But we needed the extra wet stuff as both measures were below average at the beginning of the month. And the first week of March has been pretty good also.

Below, the graph on the left shows the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Bear as of February 28, 2025. The SWE was about 85% of average at the beginning of February and ended at 104% of average. Precipitation reflected the same upward movement (image on right) moving from the beginning of month to the end about the same on a % of average basis.

Soil moisture has improved also to about 99% of average at the end of February but some of this improvement is the result of snowmelt in the lower elevations of the Upper Bear Basin. Hopefully the storms so far in March have replaced some of the lower elevation snowpack.

In this month's Water Supply Outlook from the NRCS Jordan Clayton mentioned that early snowmelt like we have seen sometimes lengthens the period of runoff which can result in more water infiltrating the ground when the main snowmelt period occurs. This could mean less runoff to the reservoirs. Fortunately the reservoirs of the Bear Basin are 70%-90% of capacity. Bear Lake water level February 28th was 5917.99 ft. which is about 72% of capacity. The water level has creeped up to 5918.15 ft. as of yesterday.

The streamflow forecasts as of March 1st are improved from January as might be expected given the snow/precipitation received in February. Pease remember that the forecasts are subject to change based on conditions in the next couple months.

That said, the chart on the left below is streamflow forecast April through July from the NCRS for the Bear River. For Steward Dam the April-July forecast is for 162 thousand acre feet (kaf). This is up from the February 1st forecast of 58 kaf and above average for the NRCS data (solid gray vertical line).

The chart on the right below is from the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center (CRBFC) which uses a different streamflow forecast model from NRCS. The chart shown is for the forecast flow at Stewart Dam, just upstream from Rainbow Canal inflow to Mud Lake. This forecast shows a 50:50 probability of 125 kaf of flow for this spring, up from 85 kaf last month. Although improved this is well below the CBRFC average value of 161 kaf.

I want to give a special thanks to Connely Baldwin for helping me understand the differences in the way the NRCS and CBRFC/NOAA calculate their streamflow forecasts. Thanks Connely.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the March 2025 in our area is for equal chance of above or below temperature but maybe slightly wetter conditions (charts below). The forecast for the first 2 weeks of March however is for cooler and wetter conditions. We've had a storm already this month and I believe more snow is forecast for the end of this upcoming week.

Connely Baldwin of RMP sent out an email on his modeling projections for Bear Lake Water level on March 3rd. The projections haven't changed from last month but the wet stuff end of February-first of March and hopefully the upcoming week may improve his forecasts. I'll keep you posted.

As always I want to thank the folks at NCRS, CBRFC, RMP and all the others who help me compile the Splashback.

BEAR LAKE WATER LEVEL

March 9, 2025

5918.15 feet*

*All Bear Lake Elevations are given in UP&L Datum