RCT Online News

April 10, 2025

A Decent Water Year....So Far!

The month of March was overall a good month in the Upper Bear Basin for Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and Precipitation, with both being about 100% of normal.

Below, the graph on the left shows the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) for the Upper Bear as of March 31, 2025. The SWE was about 97% of average at that time. Precipitation reflected the same upward movement (image on right) ending March at about 105% of normal.

Soil moisture has improved further to about 104% of average at the end of March. As shown on the SWE graph the snowmelt has started and seems to have peaked on the long term average day...April 9th.

The reservoirs of the Bear Basin are 70%-90% of capacity. Bear Lake water level was 5918.59ft on March 31st and was 5918.80 yesterday, which is about 76% of capacity.

The streamflow forecasts as of April1st are stable from March 1st forecasts. Pease remember that the forecasts are subject to change based on soil moisture and snowmelt timing in the next couple months.

That said, the chart on the left below is total streamflow forecast April through July from the NCRS for the Bear River. For Stewart Dam the April-July forecast is for 165 thousand acre feet (kaf). This is stable from the March1st forecast of 162 kaf.

The chart on the right below is from the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center (CRBFC) which uses a different total streamflow forecast model from NRCS. The chart shown is for the forecast total flow at Stewart Dam, just upstream from Rainbow Canal inflow to Mud Lake. This forecast shows a 50:50 probability of 136 kaf of total flow for this spring. CBRFC forecast for peak streamflow just upstream of Stewart Dam is about 1275 cfs which is slightly below average and would be well below flood stage.

I want to give a special thanks to Connely Baldwin for helping me understand the differences in the way the NRCS and CBRFC/NOAA calculate their streamflow forecasts. Thanks Connely.

Connely Baldwin of RMP sent out an email this morning on his modeling projections for Bear Lake Water level on April 1st. Connely expects Bear Lake to peak in early June between 5920.5-5921.2 ft! This would be a smidge higher than last year. His graph and chart are below.