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It's Hot and Dry! August 1, 2025 Well the title this month says it all. In fact there was only 0.3" rain in July for the Upper Bear Basin and really not much rain at all since May 1st (left graph). The NRCS forecast for precipitation in the Upper Bear Basin through the remainder of the water year is shown on the right graph. The maximum projection just puts the basin up to average for the water year. Precipitation in the Upper Bear Basin is not unique as the graph on the left below from the NWCC shows. The red dots represent < 50% of average; this graph is precipitation for a 4 month period ending August 1st. As a result the water supply observation from the CRBFC (graph on right) is not surprising as the Bear River stream flow at Stewart Dam is about a third what was forecast (50:50) on April 1st this spring. So what is the outlook for Bear Lake water level for the rest of the season. The graph on the left below is the water level since autumn last year. The lake level has fallen about 3 feet so far this summer. The graph on the right shows the drop in water level for the last few years from about July 1st onward. Except for 2023 when we had a wet summer the level has dropped about another foot or so to the low point in the fall. That puts the projected water level about 5915.5 ft. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast is for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for our area through October. This doesn't bode well for entering the winter with good soil moisture in the ground. As always I want to thank the folks at NCRS, CBRFC, RMP and all the others who help me compile the Splashback. BEAR LAKE WATER LEVEL August 1, 2025 5916.98 ft *All Bear Lake Elevations are given in UP&L Datum  Friends or family forwarding this to you? Get it first, get your own! Sign up to receive the SplashBack Visit our Website

Bear Lake Watch | P.O. Box 205 | St Charles, ID 83272 US