High Water & Possible Flooding

There is easily still 1 to 2 feet of snow on the ground around Bear Lake and even some ice on the lake itself, so it might seem premature to be too concerned about how much water the lake might get this spring and summer!

The latest Bear Lake level forecast by PacifiCorp is a high probability for the lake to reach 5,922.2 ft. (UP&L datum).

That is almost 10 feet above its present level! And, within 1.5 feet of full!

By comparison, in 2011 the lake reached 5,921.47. The last time the forecast for the lake was in this range was in 1997, 1998 and 1999.

For the last 10 days, the flow into Bear Lake at the Causeway has been above 500 cfs. That has been raising the lake 0.1 ft every 2 1/2 days or nearly 3 inches in a week! And runoff around Bear Lake and upstream on the Bear River has not started in earnest yet!

The PacifiCorp press release mentions flooding on historic flood plains. That is something most of us have never witnessed and it's even hard to visualize along our man-altered stream environments.

There are a lot of variables that affect snowmelt, runoff and lake levels / river levels. A couple of warm windy cloudy weeks could sublimate a lot of snow and its associated water content. A couple of warm, sunny calm weeks could make all the snow melt quickly and runoff peak rapidly. Time will tell exactly when and how this happens this year, but the potential is definitely there for a really big water year.

Under the "Ounce of Prevention" category, whether you have property along the lake shore, along the Bear River or any of the tributaries, or happen to be in the bottom of a drainage that might not have seen water in several years, be prepared for high water and possible flooding. Be mindful that you don't even have to be in low-land or historic drainage to be affected by runoff. If the ground or ditches are still frozen, the snowmelt will just move over the top. 

Vegetation, construction or other conditions of the ground or landscape my cause deviations of flows or backups. So, take a fresh look, reevaluate the situation, move vehicles and equipment away from low lying areas along streams and rivers. If you are on the lakeshore, remove any docks, floats, piers, junk, etc to the high-water line.

It's a good year to think like a Boy Scout - Be Prepared!

David Cottle

Claudia & David Cottle
Executive Directors
Bear Lake Watch, Inc.
4544 Hwy 89
Fish Haven, Idaho 83287
208-945-2772
801-243-8980 

Working to keep Bear Lake "Clean, Deep and Blue"