January Water Supply
by David Cottle, Bear Lake Watch
While it is still very early to “guestimate” what’ll happen to Bear Lake water levels this year, The first of the water supply briefings is out from NOOA. The data and forcast are very interesting.
Last year
2014 was the 3rd warmest year on record for Utah with the Salt Lake area being 2 to 3 degrees above normal and the Bear Lake area 1 to 2 degrees above. Precipitation showed an interesting divergence with the Salt Lake area recording 3 to 4.5 inches less than normal but Bear Lake recording 4.5 to 7.5 inches above normal precipitation.
This water year
The ”water year”, measured from Oct 1st to Sept 30th started with October precipitation in the Bear River area in the 50 to 70% of normal range, while the rest of Utah substantially less than that. November precip increased enough that the Bear River basin was in the 90 to 110% range. December precip showed a good shift toward wetter statewide but the Bear River area only inched up to 110 to 130% of normal range. Most of the December precip was rain because average temperatures were 5 to 7 degrees above normal.
What does all of this do to snowpack? As of January 7th, the snowpack in the Bear River drainage is 100% of normal. The caveat is that the high elevation snowpack is above normal and there is very little low level and mid-level snow. There is very little measurable snow on the ground around Bear Lake.
What does that portend for Bear Lake? The forecast is for 85% of normal stream flows. But it’s really too early to tell.
As of January 1st, the elevation of Bear Lake is 5,912.60 ft. (UP&L datum), up 6 inches from last year’s low elevation and the flow into the lake was 175 cfs which is quite good for this time of year.
In order for Bear Lake is to come up very much, we need lots more snow and/or a very cool wet spring!
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