Bear Lake Splashback

 

It's Wet But Where Is The Snow? November 30, 2025

If you're like me and look around and see no snow....and keep hearing that the ski resorts are delaying their opening....you start to wonder if it has ever been like this in the past. I was surprised to see the graph on the left, which is precipitation for Upper Bear Basin, and see we're at 95% of average. But the graph on the right, which is the snow water equivalent (SWE), confirms the look out the window....we're only 36% of average for SWE. This represents 1.1" of SWE. Only 2008 had a similar amount with 2000 having 1.2" SWE and 2022 having 1.4" SWE. So 2025 is starting off in a pretty unique spot. But it is early and if I look at the Jan to April period of each of the years mentioned above only 2022 ended the winter with below average SWE.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's forecast for December (below graph) suggests the Upper Bear Basin may be wetter than average but perhaps also warmer. This would suggest December will be similar to October and November.

However, NOAA has also indicated that La Nina will continue into the winter. La Nina typically leads to cooler and wetter conditions in the northern US. The graphs below reflect this forecast. Hopefully the Jan to March period will bring the snowpack back toward average. The soil moisture in the basin is 95% to 101% of average which is good for runoff and streamflow in the spring.

Finally, Bear Lake water level reached it's low point of 5915.07 the end of September, remained stable in October and finally in mid November has started to rise slightly. Typically the lake level rises about a foot during the winter months before the snowmelt. My fingers are crossed that La Nina delivers the snow. As always I want to thank the folks at NCRS, CBRFC, RMP and all the others who help me compile the Splashback. See you next year....water year that is!

BEAR LAKE WATER LEVEL November 30, 2025 5915.22 ft

*All Bear Lake Elevations are given in UP&L Datum 

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