Splashback by Tom Holman

It's Snowpack Season...Maybe...Sometimes....Hopefully January 1, 2026 The Upper Bear Basin has made some improvements in Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) steadily through December and early January. The graphs below show the Basin precipitation and SWE as of January 1st. Since then the overall precipitation has improved to 126% of avg (left) and SWE has improved to 98% of avg (middle). The graph on the right are the projections for SWE from now to end of WY. The 50:50 probability is for an average snowpack. The Utah Snow Survey team published their January Water Supply Forecast this week. Utah (whole state) snowpack is shallow and dense so far. They did mention that the Bear Basin (entire basin) had seen some improvement in the first part of January. The report also mentioned that snowpack to date similar to this WY 2026 was seen in 1990, 2010, 2014 and 2024. So I looked at the snotel data fro the Upper Bear Basin in those years for conditions on April 1st of those years as well as the rise in Bear Lake Water level that year. As expected snowmelt is not a simple event with lots of variables. But given the data below it seems to be a 50:50 chance that this year's snowpack will be above average and we'll have an OK runoff with lake level rise. The figures below were the Climate Prediction Center forecast for January 2026. We can keep our fingers crossed for the increased precipitation but colder temperatures so we can get more snow. Interestingly, and with full disclosure, I asked ChatGTP about the effect of La Nina on SWE in the Upper Bear Basin. I fed the AI model all the SWE data from 1990 to current by day of the year which I got from the NRCS National Water and Climate Center. I had ChatGTP look up La Nina years like this year. Maybe not surprising the model results indicated that although La Nina years tended to have a higher probability of low snowpack years there was about a 40% probability of above avg snowpack years. As always I want to thank the folks at NCRS, CBRFC, RMP and all the others who help me compile the Splashback. BEAR LAKE WATER LEVEL January 13, 2026 5915.63 ft *All Bear Lake Elevations are given in UP&L Datum  Friends or family forwarding this to you? Get it first, get your own! Sign up to receive the SplashBack Visit our Website